BRIEF HISTORY OF ECB INTEREST RATES.
In June 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) initiated its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) by reducing the deposit facility rate to -0.1%. Subsequently, the ECB made four additional 10 basis points cuts, ultimately reaching -0.5% in September 2019.
From July 2022 to September 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) implemented rate hikes totaling 4.5 percentage points over ten consecutive meetings.
Today, in November 2025, the ECB base rate is currently at 2% after inflation easing and a series of interest rate cuts in 2024 and early 2025.
ECB POSITIVE RATE ERA.
The European Central Bank’s move towards a more restrictive monetary policy has had a pronounced impact on bank lending, contributing to heightened challenges in terms of accessibility and borrower’s affordability.
In most developed European countries, we’ve witnessed in 2023 a 25% – 40% decrease in mortgage lending in 2023.
This trend has continued in 2024 and most of 2025 with statistics showing a steep decline in mortgages and property transactions.
ECB OUTLOOK IN 2025 & BEYOND
This graph indicates that STR swaps have closely followed the market expectations, and importantly, that we might not witness further base rate cuts. This information is not financial advice, and should not be interpreted as mortgage guidance.
2025 / 2026 – OPPORTUNITY FOR QUALIFIED BUYERS.
In the past year, many potential homebuyers encountered obstacles when trying to enter the housing market due to a significant rise in interest rates. As a result, there has been a noticeable decrease in property viewings, leading to a surplus of available properties. Broadly speaking, the shift in supply and demand has favoured qualified buyers.
The prevailing view among property experts and wealth advisors indicates a move back to a more traditional market setting, particularly concerning secondary residences overseas, which experienced heightened demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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